The Multipolar world, A reality for the future
Narendran Soundarajan
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Data sciences and public policy expert India
The Russia-Ukraine War marks an end to the post-Cold War era. After 1991, one of America’s great scholars Francis Fukuyama spoke triumphantly about “the end-point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.” This has not come to pass.
Instead, inflation has returned. Interest rates are rising, productivity is falling and the Specter of stagflation has returned. Economically, we seem to be back to the 1970s. To quote the US Army War College, we now live in a more volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) multilateral world.
This multilateral and multipolar world demands fresh thinking, deep relationships and new narratives. It is now clear that communism does not work. The Soviet Union has collapsed and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is presiding over a slowing economy.
On economics the world is facing acute Income and wealth inequality, ever increasing healthcare costs and imbalance in capital flow leading to over leveraging in some places and capital shortage in others. In the US, social mobility has crashed and the Great American Dream has become a Terrible American Nightmare for millions. Six in ten Americans don’t have $500 in savings
The European model is under threat too. The postwar welfare state tempered capitalism with a generous safety net. This has led to unsustainable spending, repeated deficits and rising debts. Southern Europe has long been in trouble. Now, previously sound economies such as the UK, France and Germany are teetering too.
Post-Brexit UK has a cost-of-living crisis. Even under youthful Emmanuel Macron who upended France’s traditional parties, growth, productivity and job creation remain low. The Russia-Ukraine war and the slowing Chinese economy are inflicting pain in Germany. The increased cost of gas has pushed up the cost of industrial production and exports to China have dried up.
A new sustainable economic model is now the need of the day. If everyone was to consume like the Americans, the poles would melt, the Himalayan glaciers would disappear, the oceans would be full of plastic and the planet would face environmental disaster. The Club of Rome’s 1972 -The Limits to Growth, has new relevance 51 years later in 2023.
Culture is an accumulation of collective human experience
Culture impacts both economics and politics, modern economists have recognised culture as an X factor in both individual and societal performance, 21st century economist
Papamacros and Watson recognises the importance of culture in economics and politics
As culture sets the moral framework, the literary canon and artistic heritage of a society. Furthermore, culture is a key element of identity.
Because of the centrality of culture to any society, cultural diversity matters as much as biodiversity. German culture with its rich classical music and its profound philosophy is a treasure for the world. So is Japanese culture with its origami and zen meditation.
The essence of the argument is simple: cultures have evolved over centuries, even Millenia, and have unique riches to offer. The French have their Cartesian logic and symmetrical gardens. The Arabs have calligraphy and glorious architecture. We could go on endlessly but the important point here is that globalization should not lead to homogenization. We want the many cultures around the world to survive and thrive. We must treasure them for their unique contributions to humanity.
All Lives Matter
Protecting the environment and other species involves not only solving the supply side but also the demand side of the global economy. In 1972, the Club of Rome published The Limits to Growth. This report concluded that human beings had to lessen their consumption. Infinite growth on a planet with finite resources was a mirage.
Simply put, the consumption-led growth of the 20th century can no longer work. The time for long term investments in productive assets and environmental resources has arrived. Ancient pagan cultures—Native American, Greek, African, Indian, Chinese and others—venerated nature. They put a premium on trees. Societies need to buy less from Amazon and plant more trees instead. As the water table declines around the world, societies have to increase conservation of water and improve rainwater harvesting. They have to pick up the trash, especially plastic waste, that is poisoning both water and soil around the world.
New Multipolarity
The Liberal world order has delivered its best and has reached its expiry date. we need new models to make a sustainable world. In 2002 the orange juice industry in the US was USD 6 Bn there were 213 players in the supply chain, the growers, the juicers, packaging, logistics, retail etc, in 2025 the industry is USD 13Bn there are only two players, The red meat industry has only four players, In India in 2005 there were 12 telecom companies today there are only two , the entire social media is controlled by 3 0r 4 players ,Industry after industry we moved towards a monopolistic model, one of main objectives of globalisation is standardise and homogenise goods and service so it could be weaponised by economic Hegemone.
From Indian context in the last 10 years the new government is fast returning to a civilisational state in order to protect local business and yet integrated to global innovations. Indian taxes vary based on where is it designed, where it produced and where it is sold. Designed in India made in India and sold outside has negative taxes while full import is taxed highest. Though it is more complicated than what I said, it is broadly been the basis of the Indian policy. Large scale changes to education are being undertaken to recreate a true national civilisational identity. Being Indian is being promoted as a cool thing among Gen Z.
India has a large diaspora of 150 million Indian origin population living in over 106 countries is being culturally and economically integrated to create a global Indian network. This will produce massive economic advantage over a long period of time.
India has for long been a cultural community-based society, 20% of Indians only pay income tax, only 18% of work force is employed by corporations or Government. 82% of 350 million work force is self employed or small Biz owners or agriculture work force. They do not have state sponsored pension and retirement schemes. 2/3rd of the society the parents educate their children and the children take care of aged parents. Even today in 71% of Indian households’ the parents children and grandchildren live together. The average per household population is 4.6 as compared to 1.4 in the US. France Spends 55% of its state budget in taking care of the aged sick and the retired. Most of hybrid socialistic Europe spends between 30-40 % on the same. Indian govt spends 0.6% of its total budget on supporting its aged.
However India has some concerns with Islamic neighbours Pakistan Bangladesh, it also has Nepal Bhutan Sri Lanka whom the US /China uses as economic adventurers. While theres no immediate non confrontanistic solution to it. India will have to strengthen its societies from within in order to sustain peaceful progress.
On international policy India believes in a multi-lateral cooperation model. Multiple blocks or groups of nations for specific set of common objectives. India Greece Armenia for air and sea defence, India Iran Afghanistan for west Asian port management, India Indonesia Myanmar Vietnam Thailand for LNG energy cooperation, India Asean solar alliance, India do not believe in Global alliance or even Bric’s have limited purpose. Multilateral partnerships with limited goals are the Indian way to develop a sustainable future.
India and China have lots in common, both have customary civilisational origins, given the Geo political situations both countries are in today, India and China are clear not to let bilateral trade affect in spite of geo politics. Having set aside trade and its safety, they began taking one issue at a time, for example there are 11 border disputes between India and China. In three years, they mutually resolved 2 out of 11. While both of them improving border infrastructures on other 9 territories. India and China understand they may never be without issues nor they ever would attempt to weaken each other. I call this approach
Parallel lives partners.
Let’s take a look at Europe today, the contribution of Europe to the human endeavour is huge in last two centuries. However, in the last 50 years history has been very unkind to Europe. Post World War 2 the civilisational Europe was destroyed systematically in order to create a homogenous larger west Hegemone of American universalism. The holy rivers, holy monuments, historical edifices, revered mountains holy people were converted to dehumanised tourists’ spots. Europeans were put through White guilt, world war guilt, colonial guilt so much so that they willingly uprooted themselves from their own civilisational and cultural identities. A top MEP from Italy told me recently that if I talk Italian Values in EU Parliament, I’m called a racist bigot. The EU artificially created this narrative that its western values that gave them the riches and freedom. While subtly eliminating Italian values Germanic values French and Swiss values etc out of the public discourse.
Albert Einstein said “ a nation that does not value its culture cannot survive”
Kwame Nkrumah ( Ghana’s first president) said “ a people without culture is a people without a soul”
The European union is an economic cooperation model to deliver efficiencies, but it has transformed itself into an ideological institution for liberal global order. Post world war EU was a great way to fuse warring countries together but what is the future of EU unless its re purposed it may lead to disastrous results. The Ukraine war is a sign that this is the end of De culturized de-civilaisationalised EU. For every 100 French who die today we are replacing them with 43 new born, For every 100 Germans who die we replace them with 41 Germans, For every 100 Italians who die we replace them with 56 new Italians.
Hyper individualism is Sweeping Gen Z, leading to multi-generational conflicts, Human to Human relationship is being replaced with digital accomplices or pets. Things which were considered vices are now been seen as virtues. Illegal Drugs industry in Europe is estimated to be USD 180 Billion, pornography has been marketed as a sign of freedom and it has reached USD 90 Billion, Gambling at USD 34 Bn been growing faster than any other industry.
The Revival of civilisational Europe has to come from individual Nations developing its own cultural narrative and identity. If you call an Indian south Asian it’s an offensive word, if you call an Emirati Middle eastern it’s not appreciated. What is Europe then??
The fear of world war and colonial clashes are far gone to checkered history of the past. it’s important to create the pride of being Dutch, the Deutschland, the roman, the Swiss the Serbian etc, it is more beautiful and real than an artificial cultural Europe. The religion the languages the historical heroes can still be unifying factors. A Garden of many colours is always more beautiful than corporate flower farming of one flower.
The European society is politically so polarised, for example I was in Paris during last Christmas. Due to terror threat the Christmas and new year celebrations were banned. A 1400-year unbroken tradition and an aspiration of billions of people around the world “Christmas with Paris” is banned and no outrage among the French. When Trump Made fun of Macron his way of speaking English, his suit, his dark glasses, when US president ridiculed in public media it’s shocking to know that there was no outrage in France. When trump said nasty things about Modi and India, crossing all political barriers Indians erupted in unison to outpour against Trump.
Can our political ideology be so polarised that we stop loving our nation ?? that’s a difference between a civilisational state and a liberal nation.